On December 4, 2024, the Sarajevo portal “Slobodna Bosna” published the full text of the document accompanied by the article entitled “New Non-PAPER for the Western Balkans, green light from Washington for the final result…”! The Albanian Institute for Geopolitics translated and published it in full.
In relation to this “New Non-Paper”, in this analysis we will try to draw some conclusions related to the authorship and the messages that are claimed to be conveyed and related to the security of the Western Balkans and its future in NATO and the EU.
Entry
A non-paper is an unofficial diplomatic document that presents a proposal, formulation, draft, amendment, or similar, with which the author does not wish to be officially identified.
As a rule, it is used for informal presentation of diplomatic positions to see – whether these “offered” positions will be accepted and to determine the maximum common position of the parties involved – in a certain political dispute.
So, precisely because it deals with delicate political issues, the names of the authors of the non-paper are not mentioned and it can also be translated as a ‘working document’ in the diplomatic vocabulary…
In this analysis, it is about a document coming from Washington.
The branches of the Bosnian portal “Slobodna Bosnja”, it is said in the introduction of the text, near the new head of American diplomacy, confirmed that the document was already on the desk of Republican Senator Marco Rubio from Florida, who has been appointed by the newly elected American President Donald Trump as Secretary new US State.
The goal of the initiative is to put an end to territorial claims and conflicts in the Western Balkans and create opportunities for a final turn towards Euro-Atlantic integration of the entire region, as well as away from Russian influence and possible wars, which, from time to time, threaten to destabilize the the region.
In the geopolitical context, this document seems to have a clear goal – that of the integration of the Western Balkans first of all within the strategic architecture of the USA, respectively the core of this architecture which means the Anglo-Saxon sphere of interest.
Balkan region. Source: Wikipedia Commons.
Hypotheses
The new non-paper on the Western Balkans [1] is an informal document that is often used by international actors to stimulate discussions and propose ideas or strategies regarding sensitive political issues, without taking an official position. Recently, there have been rumors that such a non-paper is circulating on the integration processes of the Western Balkans in the European Union (EU), as well as on issues such as dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, internal reforms and the acceleration of integration processes.
In the predecessor non-papers, there was an open tendency to use the “coveter’s letter” through the narrative of a “great Albania” in the general public, there were clear intentions to make the idea of the “Serbian World” aka great Serbia, more acceptable to international factors.
But what are the de facto authors of the new non-paper revealing?
What does the new non-paper contain?
The contents of a non-paper are usually not published officially, but described in the media through diplomatic sources. As we pointed out at the beginning, “Slobodna Bosna” has published a new non-paper related to the Western Balkans, which is claimed to come from Washington.
The current document reflects the intention of the Western decision-making centers for the termination of territorial conflicts in the Western Balkans, therefore it has nothing to do with Greater Serbia. One even gets the impression that the essence of this new document is the idea of a kind of distancing of the states of Southeast Europe, aka the Western Balkans, from Russian influence, which would automatically, according to the document in question, cancel the possibilities for possible conflicts, which are warned through the exercise of Serbian state terror against the Republic of Kosovo and its citizens [the case of Banja on September 24, 2024 and the latter in the Ibri e Lepenci channel].
The new non-paper specifically states: “The goal of the initiative is for all countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States to be in NATO, Serbia and Kosovo to recognize each other, to repeal the application of the Declaration of the All-Serbian Parliament in BiH , and the possibility of introducing the Law on Dual Citizenship in Montenegro”.
Currently, Montenegro has a strong position regarding the recognition of dual citizenship. According to the legislation in force, a foreign citizen seeking Montenegrin citizenship must surrender his previous citizenship. This legal provision constitutes an obstacle to the implementation of the proposals of the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian parties, which require that Montenegrin citizens of Serbian origin have the right to have dual citizenship, including that of Serbia.
These efforts come as part of a broader strategy to change the demographic and political balance in Montenegro, significantly strengthening ties between the Serbian community and Serbia. This scenario creates a favorable basis for political manipulation and increasing Belgrade’s influence in Montenegro.
Demographic statistics show deep changes in the ethnic composition of Montenegro during the last decades. In the last census, 41.12% of the population declared themselves as Montenegrins, while 33% declared themselves as Serbs—an increase of 4% compared to the 2011 census.[2]
The “new non-paper” would essentially contribute to the democratization of the Western Balkans, clearly preserving the existing – internationally recognized borders.
Let’s remember the fact that, for four years now, we have been witnessing disturbing trends, that through the example of Montenegro, which is the “alpha and omega of the Greater Serbia project”, Serbia can prove in reality its possibilities for expansion even through the hybrid war, alias “soft approach”, installing the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian government in Podgorica, despite the fact that Montenegro is a member of NATO.
Meanwhile, through the All-Serbian Assembly held on 07.06.2024 in Belgrade and the approval of the Political Platform as a basic document in the service of the “Serbian World” idea, Serbia challenged the Pre-Soviet diplomacy, making clear the final goal of the Serbian strategy.
Content and deadlines for the implementation of the “new non-paper”
According to this document, within the year 2025 – from April to October, it is planned to hold a large international conference designed as an “Initiative of the Commonwealth of Independent States” (Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina) organized under care of the EU, NATO and the USA. According to the said document, a series of agreements and memoranda would be signed at the conclusion – in which the states participating in the conference would mutually commit to the following:
1. The signing of the Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo for the full normalization of relations according to the Franco-German-EU plan, which means the de facto recognition of Kosovo by Serbia and the formation of the Community of Municipalities with a Serbian majority in the north of Kosovo, on the part of Kosovo.
2. The agreement between Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina on the repeal of the “Declaration for the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People”, [i.e. the Political Platform of the All-Serbian Assembly – SR], fully and strictly respecting the Agreement of Dayton and the political sovereignty of Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The aforementioned declaration [on the “Serbian World”] is essentially a program of political movements with the ultimate goal of creating a greater Serbia. [3] That is, it is the logical continuation of Milosevic’s “all Serbs in one state” policy, which he once articulated – in accordance with the guidelines from the SANU [Serbian Academy of Art and Science] Memorandum.
3. The agreement between Serbia and Montenegro foresees the permanent suspension of the Law on Dual Citizenship of Montenegro, creating a de facto opportunity for an army of citizens to restore Serbian citizenship as well. Through this act, more than 200,000 Serbian citizens could automatically obtain Montenegrin citizenship, through which, then, as voters, they would be able to overturn the political will of the majority citizens of Montenegro, seriously undermining the Montenegrin identity and the state of Montenegro, since it has only about 633,000 inhabitants.
4. The joint agreement on preserving and respecting territorial integrity and sovereignty (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Montenegro), and
5. The agreement for submitting a joint candidacy for membership in NATO (Serbia, BiH and Kosovo) by taking all the necessary steps and measures towards an accelerated process of admission to the EU. [4]
***
The response to this document did not take long from Belgrade. However, both Vucic and Putin are asking about something concrete. In this context, Aleksandar Vučić’s response to the non-paper offers was quick, clear and unequivocal. He said:
“As long as I am president of Serbia, there are no international conferences, no recognition of Kosovo and no membership in NATO”! Emphasizing then: “There will be no conferences as long as I am president and I am president of Serbia, at least for another two years and a few months.”!
Reactions to non-paper
- Positive : Some countries see this as a new impetus for integration and conflict resolution, especially for those who feel left behind by previous processes.
- Skeptical : Others are concerned about ideas that may violate the territorial integrity of countries, as well as unequal treatment among countries in the region.
- Kosovo and Serbia : If the non-paper includes ideas for mutual recognition or new models for dialogue, it is likely to stimulate heated debates in both countries.
Conclusion
These non-papers often remain unclear to the general public, as they do not have an official character. However, they provide an indication of the direction that EU policy or international actors may follow. It is worth seeing how the discussions will take place and whether the proposals included will find concrete support.
It is clear that the solution to all these conflicts and decades-long disputes between the states in the Western Balkans, including the ideas of a return to war, is the membership of the bloc in NATO and the EU. The spirit of this document claims to be more comprehensive – this means the full application of democratic elections, the creation of a political environment where free media can live, the independence of the judiciary and the police, including the full harmonization of foreign policy and security with that of the EU, which implies the acceptance of the political and governing philosophy, and which in principle implies the peaceful resolution of all disputes between the countries of the region.
The document in question, with emphasis on its first point and those numbered four and five, offer a clear vision for the development of the region’s separation from the sphere of Russian influence and the opening of real opportunities for economic and digital development of the Western Balkans, placed Albania and Kosovo at the heart of a global strategic architecture.
This project, as well as peace in the region itself, further depends on the position of Serbia. The first reactions from Belgrade seem to say that Serbia and Russia will reject this non-paper, as Vucic has already said. The real reasons why Belgrade reacted so quickly are of an ideological and political nature: it is aware that its acceptance means giving up the ambitious project of the “Serbian World” alias Greater Serbia.
The consequences if this document were to be rejected, according to its conclusion, would be unbearable: “Rejection of the participation of the countries of the Western Balkans in the Conference on Peace and Cooperation in BP and adherence to all the mentioned initiatives, memoranda and agreements , would clearly show ill will towards neighboring countries, towards European peace and order and security, and towards the wider European community of states. This rejection would also lead to the end of the EU membership negotiations, non-membership of the Schengen Agreement, withdrawal of foreign investments, economic sanctions and political and economic isolation.” [5]
In conclusion, we can underline that, in diplomatic circles, there is no longer any doubt that “the first non-paper (2021) completely pro-Serb, was drafted in “Vučić’s office or in one of the Moscow cabinets”, and was issued to the public by the then Slovenian Prime Minister, Janez Jansha.
Meanwhile, if we judge based on its content and especially on its spirit, the “second (pro-Western) no-paper”, in the Croatian media [6] it is judged that it must have been drafted by the Bosnian elite with a strong political-religious background, but anyway supported by some counties from the west.
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1. https://www.slobodna-bosna.ba/vijest/388593/ekskluzivno_novi_non_paper_za_zapadni_balkan_zeleno_svjetlo_iz_washingtona_za_konachmi_rasplet.html ).
See the version in Albanian: [ https://ishgj.net/aktualityte/ekskluzive-non-paper-i-ri-per-balkanin-perendimor-drite-e-gjelbert-nga-uashingtoni-per-rezultatin-perfundimtar/ ]
2. Guakuç KUCI: https://octopusinstitute.org/the-western-balkans-at-a-crossroads-an-old-war-front-in-new-geopolitical-compositions/ [ “THE WESTERN BALKANS AT A CROSSROADS: AN OLD WAR FRONT IN COMPOSITIONS THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL “]
4. https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/drugi-non-paper-za-rasplet-na-zapadnom-balkanu/
5. https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/drugi-non-paper-za-rasplet-na-zapadnom-balkanu/
6. Ibid.
