Ukraine – the country that decides the fate of the new world order!
Wrote: Agim KRASNIQI
[Albanian Institute of Geopolitics, Prishtina – Republic of Kosovo]
The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth week, and looking at the circumstances of political geography, the issue of Ukraine is a matter of Russia’s survival, while on the other hand, in the interest of the West lies the fact of continuing to set the conditions of the New World Order, cemented in political and economic liberalism.
I
During most of the second half of the 20th century, the Soviet Union controlled Eurasia, from central Germany to the Pacific, from the south to the Caucasus, and Hindu Kush. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia today is fighting for a foothold in the region, because according to Russian views, Ukraine is the country in the Kremlin hall, and in terms of modern weapons, NATO deployment in that part of Euro-Asia is presented as a springboard for her threat.
Since Ukraine had aligned itself with the USA, leaving the Russian Federation, the Russians believe that the USA is a foreign body in the territory of Euro-Asia, and according to their formula “why a non-Euro-Asian power, should rule Euro-Asia, where there is China, India, Iran, even Russia, Germany, and France”. So raising the Russian beak in this war, could be much longer term.
For now, we do not yet know what Russia’s ultimate goals are and whether they have been fulfilled with the self-recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, the invasion of Crimea, or the complete occupation of Ukraine. Crimea is an extremely important base for Russia, but now it has no strategic importance as it did in the 19th century, nor does the Black Sea.
The fact that most of the Black Sea coast is held by NATO, and if Ukraine is dominated by the West, then Russia would have nothing to do with trying to become a regional power. While the eastern parts of Ukraine are rich in resources and consequently it ranks among the first countries in the world in terms of natural resources – from iron and steel refineries to water, which means that Europe in terms of geoeconomics, if brought Ukraine under control, would solve its major problem of lack of natural resources.
For the United States, on the other hand, Ukraine and the countries of the Caucasus pose a matter of credibility to NATO and its allies. The bureaucrats and political elites of Europe, who often dream with open eyes, did not want or understand the real danger of a revanchist Russia. Not even when Russia occupied two provinces of Georgia in 2008; not even when Russia interrupted her dreams in Vilnius in 2013; nor when a year later he invaded Donbas and annexed Crimea.
The problem is that, from the inside, Europe is inert, and since it is still in the process of reorganization, after the loss of its empire, it is making efforts to renew its decision-making image in the midst of all this Russian aggression. The war in Ukraine, however, challenges the question of whether Europe is an extinct volcano or an almost dormant volcano.
Achilles heel for stability, remains the unresolved status of the Germans in the European system, because the Germans were excluded from the imperial system created by Atlantic Europe. It was the Russians with a strong geopolitical connotation who built it, Nord Stream 1 and 2 and where it was recognized by Germany, which aimed to connect directly with Russia. This was seen by the West as an attempt to create the Moscow-Berlin axis. If were to be allowed the creation of this axis, based on German discipline and capital, on the one hand, and Russian resources, human values and territory on the other, then the thalassocratic countries would ultimately have nothing to claim for in Europe. Therefore the first American reaction was to cut off the gas pipelines in all possible ways, their closure was necessary to thwart the Russian strategic threat.
Russia is not interested in invading Europe, but in reiterating its control. And this, from the Russian point of view, is a logical attempt to establish a minimum sphere of influence, which basically represents the intentions for a protective measure.
II
Let’s return to the Balkan
In Geopolitics great conflicts are repeated. When a war does not resolve a fundamental geopolitical issue that war is resumed until the issue is finally resolved. Russian policy for centuries has targeted the Balkans, and in turn fulfilled the national aspirations of the Balkan peoples, not only Serbs, but also Bulgarians, Montenegrins, Romanians and Greeks, because the Balkans are located inside the Bosporus and Dardanelles and this was the main strategic point of Russian foreign policy. In function of this, Russia divided our lands and created the Russian Orthodox Slavic satellite states in the Balkans. He assimilated the Orthodox Albanians and expelled the Albanians of the Islamic faith to Turkey. This was the first de facto Holocaust against the Albanians, which will continue for the last two centuries in the most barbaric way by the Serbs. The Russians, in interaction with the High Gate, assimilated Serbs and others, millions of Albanians into Greek, Slavic and Turkish. Today, Albanians with five citizenships in the Balkans and many others in the world still do not have a proper national agenda, although limited to themselves. A little out of fear and judgment of the internationals, as well as a lack of vision and leadership. There are many things happening at the same time in global politics and that the situation will become even more interesting in the coming weeks. Analytical philosophy has taught us that ‘Time’ in politics is the foundation of success.
When the time comes, politics works in vain, but when the time comes, politics must be ready. Therefore, we must use the right moment for Kosovo’s membership in NATO, the European Union, the Council of Europe, in any institution that can strengthen Kosovo’s security.
Turkey and Croatia have already publicly supported the idea of Kosovo’s accelerated membership in these mechanisms. Right now has come the time, and it is the right moment to see what Kosovo is doing to increase its membership in Euro-Atlantic institutions. Albanians in general do not dare to allow themselves the luxury of certain political protagonists evoking an anti-American climate. We also do not dare to allow the luxury of not having strong friends, because we have very powerful enemies that we have had throughout our history. Thanks to the absolute determination of American politics, we today have more or less restored our national identity.
Therefore, we Albanians have a great obligation to Anglo-Saxon politics, and not only, starting from Austria-Hungary, London and the USA, who considered the existence of the Albanian nation, and consider it as an opportunity for a natural alliance with us, for strategic geography, without excluding the economic one.
III
From political scholars and analysts, Russia is entering a phase of its own pathology, in which they are seeking answers beyond its borders. Viewed through this prism, many countries are trying to be neutral and make general commitments with their generalized words.
Serbia is doing the same. But in the Balkans, realistically, there is a division of influence in the sphere of interests between the West, Russia and China.
China is taking care of its interests in the Far East. At the moment, apart from economics, there is not much penetration in Europe, but this does not mean that “tomorrow” will not be.
China declared neutral policy as its position, but it is also seen as an anti-American power, same as Russia.
Concerning the Balkans, an important document that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in which it had directed to the United State Department, Russia had clearly defined which are the lands that NATO should not enter and should not deploy units and nuclear-tipped missile forces in areas of the former USSR such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova. The document does not mention the Baltic States and the Balkans. This means that the Balkans are not part of the sphere of Russian interest.
Russia, which through the countries with Slavic populations, had held the flag of pan-Slavism in the Balkans, but the political influences for establishing a balance in the Balkans have influenced Russia and the Slav-Greek axis, to gradually weaken and reduce their influence in the Balkans. In this way, Ukraine is not far from us, only Romania separates us from it, and the question really arises in whose sphere will be the Balkans and the post-Yugoslav space.
Here we can do a question: What are Russia’s intentions in the Balkans in the context of the war in Ukraine. Its aims, are they only partial or do they extend wider?
In light of today’s events, when Russian missiles are hitting apartments and killing civilians in Kiev, is not ruled out the possibility that the first armed conflict will start in the Western Balkans, starting from the north of Montenegro, the north of Kosovo, and involving Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole in a new war.
Will Russia use its potentials and capacities to destabilize the Balkans?
The answer is: Yes! And some, even used.
The very fact that there are pro-Russian demonstrations in Belgrade and Montenegro, (in Albania they are camouflaged under the guise of social demands, despite the fact that some of the demonstrators are led by the so-called “right” echelon which is led by a certain exponent anti-American) and other European countries, doing propaganda on television and social networks, Russian influence can be said to be present, even strongly.
But the question is, when is the right time to destabilize the region according to Russian directives? Russia will try to raise the potential in Europe with its special actions to provoke riots, in Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia, Northern Kosovo or even in Albania, wherever it has its influence. In this way they intend to divert the focus from the war in Ukraine, because there is not going as planned.
They will try to use special actions to set up their network in the Balkans, it remains to be seen. The goal is to provoke social riots due to high oil prices and the family basket. The ideal territories are the ones we are talking about, territories mainly non-integrated in the EU and NATO such as: Serbia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reflection for the region, in this context, proves the “accident” of the drone that hit near Zagreb.
That there will be a stage when the front lines of the war in Ukraine will stabilize, just then it is thought that serious talks will begin between the parties to the conflict, with the aim of stopping the fighting and the division of the sphere of interest, and just then all those who have received and are receiving money and support from Russia, will be forced to take to the streets. Then there is the real danger, and for now, these actions are particularly concentrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The time for expanding the range of Russian actions is coming, but much depends on developments in Ukraine.
It is enough for Russia to destabilize a NATO country like Montenegro, Northern Macedonia or even Albania, and then the first goal is to spread an armed conflict that would involve mercenaries, paramilitary structures and extremists in all countries of the region and beyond. Thus, the Western Balkans is ideal for drawing the attention of the Western democratic world. This would allow Russia to raise its negotiating position with the Ukraine-West side, because the whole story is not just about Ukraine, it is a de facto story between Russia and America, exactly, the West and Russia.
Whether there will be a strategic compromise between the West and Russia, NATO-Russia, America and Russia, remains to be seen, but here I raise the thesis that; When a war does not resolve a fundamental geopolitical issue, does that war resume until the issue is finally resolved?
And this is where the Achilles heel lies, and the question arises. Will the West go to the end of resolving the Russian issue eventually?
This answer will take time!
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