The future of the EU will depend largely on how it responds to internal and external challenges. In this context, the two Albanian republics together — political Albania and the Republic of Kosova — must focus on survival in the anarchic system of international relations.
In the regular hearing, yesterday in the European Parliament, before the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs and Industry, Research and Energy, the EU Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, stated that the European Union is facing numerous existential threats, recalling as a fact conventional warfare, hybrid attacks and the militarization of space, Euronews reports.
See for this he called for the provision of 10 billion euros by 2028 to strengthen European defense. He also stressed that 700 billion euros were needed for the development of infrastructure and an EU air defence shield.[1]
Highlighting insufficient investment in the defence sector and the fragmented European market for military equipment, he warned that strategic rivals such as China and Russia were overtaking the bloc in defence spending. In this context, Kubilius called on European lawmakers to support efforts to create a genuine European Defence Union.
1. The EU Common Arms Market
The Common Arms Market in the European Union is an initiative that aims to strengthen the defence capabilities of the member states and increase the strategic autonomy of the EU. In recent years, especially after various geopolitical crises, the EU has pursued policies of deeper cooperation in the field of defence, which include better coordination of the production, acquisition and use of armaments.
The Common Arms Market in the European Union is an initiative that aims to strengthen the defence capabilities of the member states and increase the strategic autonomy of the EU. In recent years, especially after various geopolitical crises, the EU has pursued policies of deeper cooperation in the field of defence, which include better coordination of the production, acquisition and use of armaments. Pooling resources and harmonising technical standards for weapons and military equipment can reduce costs for member states and eliminate duplication of effort.
The goal is to create a more competitive and independent arms and military technology manufacturing sector, reducing dependence on the US and other suppliers outside the EU.[2]
On July 29, the RAND Corporation, a Pentagon-funded think tank, released a comprehensive assessment of the state of the US military and Washington’s National Defense Strategy (NDS) to 2022, prepared by a panel of “non-governmental national security experts” established by Congress.
The RAND report is a critical, relentless, and bleak analysis of the US military apparatus, concluding that the US is “not at all prepared” for serious competition with major global adversaries and is “vulnerable or even comparable” in almost every modern sphere of warfare.[3]
In these circumstances, when Donald Trump is expected to arrive in the White House in January, we will witness an unusual phase of the late period of the American empire, comparable to the last years of the Soviet Union, in which military analysts with clear insight admit that Washington’s hegemony is rapidly weakening on the global stage, which is also expected to pave the way for the “officialization” of the New World Order.
European experts in the field, see for example, have advocated for the harmonization of military equipment, since only in this way can the armies of different countries act more easily together in case of need, increasing the operational effectiveness of joint forces.
Through these policies, the EU aims to improve collective security by better preparing itself for global challenges and threats in the region.
Steps that have been taken:
• Harmonization of Standards and creation of common certification mechanisms for military equipment.
• European Defence Budget, partly financed by the EU, to support joint development and production projects.
• Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) initiatives, which include various joint projects for the development of defence capabilities.
The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency could have a major impact on the foreign policy and security of the European Union. Trump has often criticized European allies for their low contributions to NATO and has pushed for more independence for Europe in the field of defence. Thus, his return could push the EU towards accelerating a common defence policy and towards the creation of a more independent defence structure.
During his first term, Trump had a more pragmatic and sometimes withdrawn approach towards transatlantic allies, favouring the policy he had also promoted during the “America First” campaign. This has prompted some European leaders to seek strategic “emancipation” from the US, to avoid being entirely dependent on American support. As a result, the EU is encouraged to develop its own defense capabilities to counter external threats, especially given the tense situation with Russia and the instability of the Middle East region.
“[The Russians] can produce [within] six months everything that Germany has in stock,” he said at the start of a three-hour question from MEPs, adding: “This should be a warning signal to all of us,”[4] Politico reports.
The EU, without competing with NATO, should help develop the capabilities and resources needed to implement NATO’s military deterrence and defense plans, he said. Stressing the need to “spend more, spend better, spend together as a European community” on defence, Kubilius said that “we must achieve a true single market for defence”. Doing so seems at first glance an ambitious undertaking. Plans for an air defence system worth more than €500 billion would have to be negotiated within the EU in all member state capitals, who would have to say how much they were prepared to commit to such an effort. There is also a plan for a ground defence network across the bloc’s eastern flank that would require billions in further investment. But the ambitious plan does not end there. Kubilius estimated that around €200 billion would be needed over the next decade for improvements to allow tanks and troops to move easily across the EU on roads and railways.
2. Europe’s ‘space revolution’
The “space revolution” in Europe involves major projects and developments that are changing the way space technologies are used and understood. The European Union (EU) has invested significantly in this area to improve Europe’s security, economy, and technological sustainability. Here are some of the key EU projects that could be markers of Europe’s “space revolution”:
2. 1 Galileo
Galileo is the European satellite navigation system, an alternative to the US’s GPS and Russia’s GLONASS. The system provides precise positioning and timing for civilian users worldwide and increases the security of communications for critical applications such as traffic monitoring and emergency operations.
Galileo is Europe’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and has been operational since December 2016. It provides accurate and reliable positioning and timing information, which is used in devices such as smartphones, but also in other applications and sectors of the economy such as railways, aviation, agriculture, maritime and more.
Galileo consists of 24 satellites orbiting the Earth at an altitude of 23,000 km. Galileo’s signals are broadcast freely to anyone with a device capable of receiving its signals (e.g. smartphone). Galileo is three times more accurate than GPS, offering 1 meter accuracy and a wide range of services.[5]
2. 2 Copernicus
The Copernicus programme includes satellites and other technologies for monitoring the Earth, providing data on climate, environment, marine, agriculture and natural resource management.
Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space Programme,
looking at our planet and its environment in the interests of all European citizens. It provides information services drawing on satellite Earth observation and in-situ (non-space) data.
The European Commission manages the Programme. It is implemented in partnership with the Member States, the European Space Agency (ESA), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), EU Agencies and Mercator Océan, the European Environment Agency (EEA), the Joint Research Centre (JRC).[6]
This technological advancement also has a significant impact on the political future of the European Union (EU), especially now that Brussels is facing its own challenges, but also new opportunities, driven by a mix of internal tensions, geopolitical changes and changing priorities.
Some key aspects of the EU’s future prospects include:
• Strengthening integration and institutional reforms
Deeper cooperation: To remain globally competitive and overcome internal challenges, the EU may increasingly rely on deeper integration. This could include greater alignment in areas such as taxation, social policy and defence.
Majority decision-making: A central point of contention is whether the EU should move to majority decision-making in foreign policy and other sensitive areas in order to speed up decision-making processes.
Institutional reforms: There are discussions about reforming the EU institutions to adapt them to a larger and more diverse union. One could imagine a stronger role for the European Parliament and a more efficient administration.• European autonomy and strategic sovereignty
Why is this sovereignty increasingly important, especially now that geopolitical realignments are on the horizon?
Discussions about the concept of European strategic autonomy are not new, and even less so in this period when the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to power was being discussed.
Its authors and interpreters have already provided exhaustive explanations of what exactly is meant by this concept and how it can help Europeans take their fate into their own hands in an increasingly harsh world.
Some believe that strategic autonomy is a concept that should be strengthened to the extreme, especially after Donald Trump’s victory. Others see it as a political imperative that must be put into practice more than anything else, regardless of who is in the White House. In between, there are those who believe that we should avoid the old theological arguments and fill the term with practical content. I share this view, Joseph Borell expresses in an essay.
He goes on to explain that the term is not new. “Strategic autonomy” has long been part of the EU’s common language. The term was coined in the defense industry and was for a long time limited to defense and security issues. And that is part of the problem. [7]
Independence from global superpowers: The EU is working to find an independent role between the US and China. This can be seen in projects such as the European Defense Initiative and the desired energy sovereignty.
Resilient supply chains: The coronavirus pandemic and geopolitical tensions have pushed the EU to diversify its supply chains and seek strategic independence in areas such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and raw materials.
• Migration and social cohesion
Migration as a core issue: The EU faces the challenge of developing a common migration policy. Tensions between member states over the distribution of refugees and migrants make it difficult to resolve.
Integration and social tensions: Dealing with migration and integration is essential for social cohesion. The EU must find ways to make cultural diversity and integration harmonious.
3. Environment and climate policy
The EU Green Deal: The EU Green Deal is at the heart of the Union’s future climate policy. The EU aims to be climate neutral by 2050, which requires extensive reforms and investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture and transport.
Energy crisis and transition: Given the energy crisis and geopolitical dependence on energy sources, the EU needs to accelerate its energy diversification and investment in renewable energy.
• Populism and nationalism
Intra-European tensions: The rise of populist movements in some member states poses a challenge to the unity of nationalist EU governments and could hinder efforts to deepen EU integration and exacerbate conflicts on issues such as the rule of law and media freedom.
Political fragmentation: The EU faces increasing political fragmentation, which can make it difficult to decide on and implement joint actions.
• Technological development and digitalisation
Digital sovereignty: The EU is striving for greater digital independence in order to be less dependent on big tech companies from the US and China. This includes developing our own digital infrastructures, data centres and technologies.
Data protection and AI regulation: The EU can play a leading role in regulating artificial intelligence and data protection to set ethical and social standards and protect the digital rights of its citizens.
The future of the EU will largely depend on how it responds to internal and external challenges. Whether it moves towards a stronger political union or allows for more flexible models of cooperation will be crucial to ensuring stability, prosperity and global influence in dealing with natural emergencies and monitoring climate change.
3.1 Space Security Programme
The EU is also developing a space security programme that includes protecting satellite infrastructure from risks such as space debris and cyber-attacks. This is an effort to ensure that Europe’s space infrastructure remains secure and protected from external interference and threats.
3.2 NewSpace Initiative
The EU has also encouraged the development of the private sector in space, including “NewSpace,” which supports new and innovative companies in the space field. This includes startups that develop new technologies for launching rockets, developing small satellites and providing services for specific missions.
3.3 IRIS² Constellation
IRIS² is a recent project that aims to build a constellation of satellites to ensure secure communications in Europe and improve internet connectivity in rural and remote regions. This project is being considered an essential element to increase Europe’s technological autonomy and strengthen cybersecurity.
These projects are part of the EU’s strategy to develop its space capabilities, increase technological independence and influence global innovation in the field of space.
***
To expand the range of investments in this plan, the EU Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, insisted in this hearing that we mentioned above that Europe must be part of the “space revolution”. The EU must continue to improve its major space programmes and work to ensure autonomous European access to space, he affirmed in this traditional briefing. The European Investment Bank’s lending policies could evolve and the next multiannual financial framework should have larger spending lines for defence and space, he added.
Brussels is also expected to publish a law, namely the EU Space Act, to promote global standards for thousands of satellites in orbit; promote the economy of space data collection; and strengthen the protection of EU space assets for “the most extreme military contingencies”.
The Space Act, warned EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, will be a major part of his legislative agenda until 2025, and is likely to set standards to curb light pollution caused by mega-satellite constellations and limit greenhouse gas emissions and pollution caused by rocket launches.
The EU currently spends around €2 billion a year on space, he said, but just maintaining services in existing programmes like Galileo will require “much more significant funding” from the budget — so expect more talks on space allocations in the coming months, adding at the end of this hearing that: “Space is still untapped for defence.”
But can the EU’s common arms market, the space revolution… be guaranteed without the EU’s strategic “emancipation” from the US?
The political future of the European Union (EU) in the context of geopolitical developments and the expected return of Donald Trump to White House is expected to face unpredictable challenges, but also opportunities, imposed by a mix of internal tensions, geopolitical changes and changing priorities.
All of this is linked to several factors:
• Strengthening integration and institutional reforms
To remain globally competitive and to overcome internal challenges, the EU may increasingly rely on deeper integration and cooperation among member states. This could include greater alignment in areas such as taxation, social policy and defence.
A central point of contention is whether the EU should move to majority voting in foreign policy and other sensitive areas in order to speed up decision-making processes. This issue goes through deep institutional reforms. There are serious discussions about reforming the EU institutions to adapt them to this existing union and to full enlargement, especially with the six countries of South-Eastern Europe: Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia, but also with the two countries of Eastern Europe: Ukraine and Moldova. A stronger role for the European Parliament and a more efficient administration can be imagined.
• European autonomy and strategic sovereignty
Independence from superpowers: the EU is working to find an independent role between the US and China. This can be seen in projects such as the European Defence Initiative and the desired energy sovereignty.
The coronavirus pandemic and geopolitical tensions have pushed the EU to diversify its supply chains and seek strategic independence in areas such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and raw materials.
• Migration and social cohesion
Migration is seen as a crucial issue. The EU faces the challenge of developing a common migration policy. Tensions between member states over the distribution of refugees and migrants make it difficult to resolve.
Dealing with migration and integration is essential for social cohesion. The EU must find ways to make cultural diversity and integration harmonious.
• Environment and climate policy
The EU Green Deal is at the heart of its future climate policy. The EU aims to be climate neutral by 2050, which requires extensive reforms and investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture and transport.
Given the energy crisis and geopolitical dependence on energy sources, the EU needs to accelerate its energy diversification and investments in renewable energy.
• Neo-fascism: a wake-up call
The rise of populist movements with strong elements of neo-fascism in some member states poses a challenge to the unity of nationalist EU governments, which could hinder efforts to deepen EU integration and exacerbate conflicts on issues such as the rule of law and media freedom. The case of Hungary is a specific example.
The rise of neo-fascism is expected to deepen political fragmentation on a scale that threatens the future of the EU.
• Technological development and digitalization
The EU is striving for greater digital independence in order to be less dependent on big tech companies from the US and China. This includes developing our digital infrastructures, data centers and technologies.
In this context, the EU can play a leading role in regulating artificial intelligence and data protection to set ethical and social standards and to protect the digital rights of its citizens.
4. Transatlantic developments and Albanians
On the transatlantic front, political, economic and security developments also have direct impacts on Albanians, especially considering the close ties of political Albania and the Republic of Kosovo with the United States and the European Union. Albania is already a NATO member state and is currently taking real steps towards EU accession. The Republic of Kosovo has also applied for EU membership. Whether this is the path that should be followed is a matter for further discussion.
In recent decades, Albanians have benefited from cooperation with the US and the EU in many areas. For example, NATO played a major role not only in the liberation but also in the security of Kosovo and subsequently helped develop the Kosovo Security Forces, which are now becoming a real defense force. Through NATO, a security umbrella has been created that supports peace and stability in the region.
In economic terms, Albania and Kosovo’s trade relations with Western countries are growing. Foreign investment, especially from Western countries, is an important factor in the economic development of Albania and Kosovo. For example, EU-funded infrastructure projects and economic agreements with the US help strengthen the economies of both Albanian republics and raise the standard of living for the population.
Finally, Albanians in the diaspora, especially in the USA, are also an influential factor in strengthening transatlantic ties. They not only contribute with remittances and investments, but also play an important role in increasing the political and diplomatic influence of Albanians in the international arena. Meanwhile, Albanians in Western Europe were the decisive factor for the changes that followed on February 14, 2021, opening the prospect of the liberation of the Republic from the oligarchy and its functionalization on the scale that today guarantees the sovereignty of the Republic in its territorial integrity.
Overall, transatlantic developments offer opportunities for economic growth, improved governance, and strengthened security for Albanians, but they also require a continued commitment to meet democratic standards and pursue policies that harmonize with Western ones.
Meanwhile, European efforts for this kind of “strategic emancipation” from the US, unfortunately, neither in Tirana nor in Pristina seem to have been able to read it properly. Official Pristina has, in fact, invested a lot in establishing good relations with Great Britain, as the bearer of Anglo-Saxon views and interests on the old continent. Consequently, in the expected geopolitical realignments even within the Western Hemisphere, the Anglo-Saxon grouping is likely to have a wider reach than can be judged in Paris or Berlin.
[Let us recall on this occasion the AUKUS military alliance — Australia, United Kingdom, USA, signed on September 15, 2021, almost half a year before the Russian invasion for the complete occupation of Ukraine. Over time, Washington realized that this alliance “would not be enough to contain China, because Beijing was not impressed, that is, it did not give any signs or make known any indication of its intention to submit to American global domination.”[8]
After that, Washington focused on attracting its verified European and Asian partners. [Poland, the Baltic states and probably the Eastern Balkans].
Despite all these expected developments in transatlantic relations, the Albanian debate on the results of the US elections — as in the past — indicates the pronounced political deficit of our elite and those who claim to create opinion. The problem remains the forced display of views that place extreme expectations on American presidents. Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Joe Biden have been elevated to Messiah-like figures. This dichotomous view does not reflect a mature society, but rather an overly prolonged and delayed adolescence.
In this context of developments, the two Albanian republics together — political Albania and the Republic of Kosovo, as countries with little weight in the modern political scene and in international relations, must always pay attention to the power relations in motion in the world and focus on survival in the anarchic system of international relations. Moreover, they must take care of the interests of the Nation, our position and reputation in the world.
5. Conclusion
Now that Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office is almost certain, alarm bells about the expected negative impact on transatlantic relations have been ringing.
But the biggest problem for Europe is now Ukraine. Given who will be in the White House in January 2025, the US will surely transfer the problem of financing the Ukraine war onto the shoulders of the EU, while it will fully return to the Middle East and confronting China, as the real center of its national interests.[9]
Some of the ways in which his return could affect the EU’s political future:
• US approach to NATO and Security Cooperation
Trump has often shown skepticism towards NATO, calling for European member states to contribute more financially. If he focuses on reducing US commitment to NATO, this could increase pressure on the EU to build a stronger independent defence capability. The EU could try to advance its “European defence” project to ensure more strategic independence.
• Trade and Economic Policies
Trump has supported protectionist policies and has sought bilateral agreements that favour the US, rather than multilateral ones. His return could bring new trade tensions between the US and the EU, which could worsen economic relations or lead to a reorientation of the EU towards other trading partners.
• Climate and Energy Issues
Trump has been skeptical of climate agreements, including the Paris Agreement, which the US withdrew from during his first term. If the EU sees a lack of cooperation from the US on climate issues, it could seek to deepen climate cooperation with other countries or increase its own investments in green technologies to maintain its role as a global leader on environmental issues.
• Strengthening European Integration and Autonomy
A Trump return could reinforce the narrative of a more independent and integrated EU. With less support from the US, there could be a push for more political and economic integration between member states. Political attitudes towards Russian and Chinese influence could also change, with the EU trying to avoid dependence on external powers.
Overall, Trump’s possible return could prompt the EU to reconsider its foreign policy, increasing autonomy and defending its interests in a world where the US may be more focused on domestic policies and protectionist approaches.
But due to the lack of leadership within the EU and the long-term flirtation with Putin’s Russian Federation, the EU has remained completely out of the spotlight of the competition of other world powers and their desire to free themselves from American dominance in the last three decades, since both Paris and Berlin believed that through that flirtation in the Washington-Moscow relationship, “they would more easily gain the space to realize their national interests to the extent they considered necessary.[10]”
Therefore, the future of the EU will depend largely on how it responds to internal and external challenges. Whether it moves towards a stronger political union or allows for more flexible models of cooperation will be crucial to ensuring stability, prosperity and influence at the global level. Consequently, the new European military path could be described as a strategic “emancipation” of its own kind from the USA.
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- https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/tjedna-analiza-zorana-metera-moze-li-trump-sprijeciti-ovaj-rat-u-kojem-i-proxyji-zele-atomske-bombe/
2. https://x.com/euronews/status/1854473919475966277
3. https://www.geopolitika.news/vijesti/novi-europski-vojni-put-rusi-mogu-u-6-mjeseci-proizvesti-vise-od-zaliha-njemacke/
3. https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/pentagonov-kucni-think-tank-nasi-suparnici-su-trenutno-neusporedivo-jaci-od-nas/
4. https://www.politico.eu/article/andrius-kubilius-defense-space-chief-european-parliament-hearing-russia/
5. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-space/galileo-satellite-navigation_en
6. https://www.copernicus.eu/en/about-copernicus
7. Josep Borrell, Përfaqësuesi i Lartë i Bashkimit Evropian për Punët e Jashtme dhe Politikën e Sigurisë / Zëvendëspresident i Komisionit: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/warum-die-strategische-autonomie-europas-wichtig-ist_de
8. https://www.geopolitika.news/analize/tjedna-analiza-zorana-metera-moze-li-trump-sprijeciti-ovaj-rat-u-kojem-i-proxyji-zele-atomske-bombe/
9. Ibd.
